Forecasting Like a Weatherman

In every sales meeting I’ve ever led, I ask one simple question: “What’s your forecast?”
And too often, what follows is hesitation — caveats, conditions, qualifiers.
But forecasting isn’t about being right. It’s about being accountable.

A salesperson who waits until they’re “sure” before giving a number might as well wait until the deal is closed — because then it’s 100% accurate and 100% useless.

Sales forecasts are like weather forecasts. The weatherman doesn’t get extra time before the 6 PM news to make it more accurate. They step in front of the camera and give their best estimate with the data available right now. Then they refine tomorrow.

That’s how sales should work.

Why it matters

• Forecasts reveal judgment quality. Accuracy improves only when you practice estimating with imperfect data.

• Waiting for certainty destroys learning loops. The value of a forecast lies in comparing your prediction with what actually happens.

• A leader’s job is not to punish inaccuracy but to reward honesty and iteration.

How to build this habit

1. Start every week with a forecast. Ask each rep: “What will you close this week? This month? This quarter?” No excuses—just a number.

2. Track prediction vs. reality. Use a simple bowler chart or spreadsheet. Don’t over-engineer it.

3. Coach with curiosity, not judgment. When the number’s off, dig into what changed—buyer signals, qualification, or optimism?

4. Celebrate improving accuracy, not inflated totals. Forecasting is about seeing the weather sooner, not making it sunnier.

Over time, you’ll notice something powerful: your team’s confidence grows with their calibration. They stop hiding behind pipeline optimism or perfectionism and start leading with clarity.

The best sales leaders don’t demand certainty—they develop forecasters.
Because in both weather and revenue, courage beats precision. Every time.